I don't like Tiger, whose recent results have been too average (pathetic, actually, for him). If Phil's wrist is as bad as feared, this could be a wide-open Open. A brash, young player (Sean O'Hair or Ryan Moore) will contend for 36 or 54 holes, but this is the U.S. Open, where youthful indiscretion is punished severely.
Geoff Ogilvy is playing well enough to defend his title, but he looked alarmingly susceptible to the big number at this year's Masters. Padraig Harrington is in the middle of a nice season, including an encouraging T7 at the Masters. He rebounded nicely from a 7 on the 18th hole in the third round at Winged Foot last year, but by his own admission got a little edgy Sunday when three closing pars would've won the thing. He's more seasoned now, and he's my pick to win.