AT&T Byron Nelson betting guide: 11 picks our expert loves at TPC Craig Ranch

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read below to see his favorite plays for the AT&T Byron Nelson, which kicks off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Keep scrolling past Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

***

Following the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, the PGA Tour has been on a run of tournaments that feature big, long courses — and it continues beyond this week with Oak Hill Country Club hosting the PGA Championship next week. Mexico Open host Vidanta Vallarta measured more than 7,500 yards; Quail Hollow Club was just less than 7,500 yards; and this week we arrive at TPC Craig Ranch, a par-71 that is 7,400-plus yards.

For the third season in a row, TPC Craig Ranch will host the AT&T Byron Nelson — the final tune-up before next week’s second major championship of the season. It is a Tom Weiskopf design with wide, Zoysia grass fairways and large, flat, bentgrass greens. Craig Ranch has played as one of the easiest courses on Tour the past two seasons. K.H. Lee is your two-time defending champion, getting home with winning scores of 25 and 26 under par, respectively, in 2021 and ’22. The course can stretch to 7,414 yards from the tips and will play as a par-71 this season after the 12th hole was converted from a shorter par-5 to a longer par-4.

Thundershowers and wind are in the forecast for all four days with temperatures in the low 80s. Steady winds anywhere from 10-20 mph are expected Thursday through Saturday. That could keep the scoring down but the rain could soften up the course and turn this back into the birdie-fest we are accustomed to. The winds are supposed to calm down quite a bit for Sunday’s final round.

It is a long course and if the rain softens it up, it will become even longer. But with wide fairways and not much rough to speak of, even the shorter knockers shouldn’t find themselves at too much of a disadvantage. I did look at Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week but put more emphasis on Strokes Gained Approach and Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and from 200-yards or more. I think ultimately this will come down to strong approach/long-iron play, scoring on the par-5s and making a lot of putts.

I also looked at Birdies or Better Gained this week, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent grass) and how these players fare on easy courses. Of course, I also took into account correlated courses — courses with either the same designer or similar layouts. With only two years in the books at TPC Craig Ranch, it is hard to find too much crossover success with other courses in the Tour rotation. What I landed on were Port Royal Golf Club (Bermuda Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children’s Open), TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open) and Pebble Beach.

To Win the AT&T Byron Nelson (and to Finish Top 20)

Tyrrell Hatton (14-1)

Hatton has been having a great season and it got started at one of our correlated courses, a 6th-place finish at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. He has since finished 4th at Bay Hill, 2nd at the Players Championship and 3rd last week in Charlotte. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 6th in this field for SG Off the Tee, third for SG Approach, 4th in Birdies or Better Gained and 11th in SG Par-5s. 

Jason Day (16-1)

Before the Masters, Day had not had a finish worse than 19th in 2023. He missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo, a tournament he’s won in the past, so I have a hunch he wants to right the ship this week before next week’s PGA Championship, another tournament he has won before. Over the last 36 rounds, Day is 21st in SG Putting (bent grass), 7th in SG Off the Tee, 16th in SG Approach and 5th for Birdies or Better Gained. Day finished one better than Hatton at Scottsdale earlier this year, taking 5th. He has two top 10s at TPC Summerlin and has dominated at Pebble Beach with seven top-7 finishes in his career.

Seamus Power (45-1)

Power kicked off this season on a tear but cooled off when we hit the Florida Swing. He came through with a nice finish last week though at Quail Hollow, taking 18th. He’s finished 17th and 9th at the Nelson the two times it has been played at TPC Craig Ranch. He won the Bermuda Championship earlier this season also has top-10 finishes at both Detroit Golf Club and Pebble Beach. He tends to play the easier courses really well and over the last 36 rounds on bentgrass, and ranks 10th in this field for SG Putting.  

Brandon Wu (65-1)

The form has been very good as of late for the Stanford Cardinal. He just finished 3rd three weeks ago in Mexico and was runner-up there last year. He was also runner-up at Pebble Beach back in February. Over the last 36 rounds, Wu is 29th in this field for SG Off the Tee, 37th for SG Approach, 44th in Hole Proximity from 200-yards or greater and 14th in Birdies or Better Gained. He also resides in the Dallas area so the familiarity with the course and the conditions is a bonus.

News

Eric Cole (80-1)

The world met Cole in March when he lost in a playoff to Chris Kirk at the Honda Classic. Before that, he finished 15th at Pebble Beach and most recently took 5th at the Mexico Open. He ranks 5th in this field for SG Approach over the last 36 rounds, 30th for SG Par 5s and 13th for SG Putting on bentgrass.

Nate Lashley (140-1)

Earlier this season, Lashley finished 20th at the Genesis Invitational and then followed that up with a 3rd place finish in Puerto Rico. He’s made three cuts in a row and recorded a Top 30 finish last week at the Wells Fargo — another solid performance against an elevated field — after being tied for the lead through 36 holes. He’s finished as high as 3rd at TPC Scottsdale, 11th in Mexico, 5th at Pebble Beach, and has his only Tour win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. Over the last 36 rounds, Lashley is 23rd in this field for SG Approach, 7th in SG Par 5s, and ranks 1st and 5th, respectively, for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and 200-yards or greater.

Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups (23-18-2 YTD record)

Tyrrell Hatton (+215) over Scottie Scheffler

Matt Kuchar (-125) over Adam Scott

Brandon Wu (+110) over Aaron Rai

Eric Cole (+100) over Sam Stevens

Nate Lashley (-110) over Robby Shelton

Who Chirp users like to win

Download Chirp here and join the fun!