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Augusta, Ga. — There is one overwhelmingly obvious question this week at the Masters tournament: If not Tiger Woods, then who?
You've read the buildup. Writers aren't wondering whether Tiger is going to win the Masters, they're wondering whether Tiger is going to win the Grand Slam. Well, that will be a moot point unless he can unseat defending champion Zach Johnson.
So who can beat Tiger at Augusta? Here are my baker's dozen choices of the most likely candidates, starting with those who have the best prospects.
1. Phil Mickelson. Well, duh. He's won the Masters twice since 2004 and the course plays to his strengths-power and short-game mastery. You don't win in Augusta unless you're a great putter or have a great putting week. Phil has the experience, he knows where to play the shots and he has greatly improved his formerly somewhat limited shotmaking skills in the last five years, making him an annual threat to contend. It was tough in the early 1960s to win a Masters when you had to beat guys named Palmer and Nicklaus. Now you've got to beat guys named Woods and Mickelson.
2. Geoff Ogilvy. The 2006 U.S. Open champion could have won the Masters last year if he hadn't made a triple-bogey eight at No. 2 on Thursday and a quadruple-bogey nine at the 15th on Saturday. The Aussie actually led the field in birdies for the week. He fits the winner's profile: He hits it long and high, he's won a major, he's got experience, he's got a very good short game (don't forget his chip-ins at Winged Foot and the recent one at Doral) and he's playing well going into the tournament.
3. Lee Westwood. Call him a sleeper pick. The Englishman hasn't been a factor in a major for some time but he's coming off a period of hard work and rededication, and is playing his best golf in years. He hasn't won in Europe this season but he's been second twice and was third in his last appearance, at Andalucia in Spain. He's got the experience to handle the pressure. The timing could be right.
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4. Padraig Harrington. Now that the pleasant Irishman has the major monkey off his back, who knows what else he might win? He's a very solid player, has an excellent short game and though he looks mechanical with his putting stroke, he gets the ball in the hole. His record at Augusta is just good enough to be interesting-a fifth, a seventh and a 13th in eight tries. Twice he's led in fewest putts, a good sign.
5. Jim Furyk. He's been fourth twice, sixth once and in the top 15 on six occasions. True, he doesn't have the length to overpower the course and take advantage of the par 5 holes--but then neither did Zach Johnson last year. Furyk's recent showing at Doral (where he tied for second) indicates he's back on top of his game. He led the tournament in greens hit in regulation. He can play this course well enough to win-he just needs to score slightly better. He's too tough to count out.
6. Retief Goosen. You wouldn't exactly call it a slump, but in the last few years Goosen hasn't played to his previous standard. That's odd to say, since his last three Masters finishes are third, third and second. The South African did look like his old self at Doral, joining Furyk and Vijay Singh as runners-up to Ogilvy. Goosen's swing has never looked better and his putting stroke, once one of the most feared on Tour, suddenly seems back in the groove. If he's truly the Goose of old, he's a serious challenger.
